Environmental Valuation & Cost-Benefit News
Regional assessment of climate change impacts on maize productivity and associated production risk in Switzerland
11/25/07
11:28:52 pm, by damageva 
, 303 words, 104 views 
Categories: Climate Change GHG Carbon CO2, Europe, Academic Study/Journal Article, Agriculture, Forestry and Food, Environmental Economics / Ecological Economics, Costs and Benefits
Regional assessment of climate change impacts on maize productivity and associated production risk in Switzerland
Abstract: A simple model of yield was used along with climate scenarios to assess the impact of climate change on grain maize productivity and associated economic risk in Switzerland. In a first application, changes in the precipitation regime alone were shown to affect the distribution of yield considerably, with shifts not only in the mean but also in the standard deviation and the skewness. Production risk was found to respond more markedly to changes in the long-term mean than in the inter-annual variability of seasonal precipitation amounts. In a further application, yield projections were generated with respect to a full climate scenario, with the emission pathway as specified in the IPCC A2 scenario. Anticipation of the sowing date was found to reduce the negative impact of climate change on yield stability, but was not sufficient to ensure average productivity levels comparable to those observed at present. We argued that this was caused by the reduction in the duration of the growing season, which had a stronger impact than suggested by previous studies. Assuming no change in price relations, the results also revealed a strong increase in production risk with climate change, with more than a doubling in the probability of yield falling short of a critical threshold as compared to today’s situation.
Keywords: Maize productivity, Production risk, Climate change, Climate variability, Parametric yield model
by Daniele Torriani 1, Pierluigi Calanca 1, Markus Lips 2, Helmut Ammann 2, Martin Beniston 3 and Jürg Fuhrer 1
1. Air Pollution/Climate Group, Agroscope Research Station ART, Reckenholzstrasse 191, 8046 Zurich, Switzerland; Email: pierluigi.calanca@art.admin.ch
2. Farm Management Group, Agroscope Research Station ART, 8356 Ettenhausen, Switzerland
3. Climate Change and Climate Impacts, University of Geneva, 7 Route de Drize, 1227 Carouge, Switzerland
Regional Environmental Change via Springer Publishing www.SpringerLink.com
Volume 7, Number 4; December, 2007; Pages 209-221
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-007-0039-z
http://www.springerlink.com/content/e3r1rk0460267227/
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