Environmental Valuation & Cost-Benefit News

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Climate change is expected to lower the potential for agricultural production, according to the Little Green Data Book 2008 launched today on the occasion of the 16th Session of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development, which is focusing its deliberations on issues of agriculture and rural development.

This year’s World Bank Little Green Data Book shows that worldwide agricultural potential could fall by as much as 16 percent due to climate change. The drop would be particularly steep in developing countries (-20%) compared to industrial countries (–6%). At the heart of the problem are worldwide carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions: the world today produces 27.7 percent more CO2 than in 1990.

Warren Evans, Director of Environment, World Bank, said, “Climate change can be very harmful to worldwide agricultural potential, as this year’s Little Green Data Book highlights. The development community needs to take action to reverse the alarming trend of continued growth in greenhouse gas emissions.”

As the planet warms up, climate variability and extreme weather events such as floods and droughts become more likely, with negative impacts on agricultural productivity. The negative effect of warming is particularly strong in countries close to the equator, where average temperatures are already above the optimum for most crop production. The negative effects of increasing weather variability and extreme events are accentuated in low income countries, where the capacity to adapt is limited.

The situation is particularly critical in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where adaptation capacity in agriculture is minimal owing to the lack of infrastructure, assets and incomes. Agricultural land on the continent constitutes 44 percent of total land area, yet use of agricultural inputs such as water, irrigation infrastructure, and fertilizers is low, making the potential impact of climate change on agricultural productivity even more pronounced.

In poor countries, the impacts of falling agricultural productivity can go beyond the negative effect on local economies and the environment. As agriculture delivers lower yields, food prices will go up and levels of malnutrition and related human diseases will increase. Impacts will be most felt in South East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

“Dealing with climate change impacts is possible and win-win opportunities can be found, especially in developing countries,” said Evans. “For example planting mangroves to buffer the effects of storm surges on infrastructure near the coast, can also sequester carbon; afforestation and avoided deforestation programs prevent soil erosion and improve the micro-climate; water storage reduces flood risks, helps in drought response, and can provide clean energy from hydro”.

About the report
In its eighth annual edition, the World Bank’s Little Green Data Book 2007 is a pocket-sized quick reference on key environmental and development data for over 200 countries, based on the World Development Indicators 2007. Country, regional, and income group profiles provide a baseline for comparison on the state of the environment and its linkages with the economy and people.

This year’s edition dedicates its “focus section” on climate change and its impacts. Additional highlights from the report include:

* While high income countries today produce nearly one half of world CO2 emissions from energy, the share of developing countries is projected to increase at a faster pace in the future. In per capita terms, however, emissions in developing countries will continue to be lower than in developed countries
* Coastal areas at high risk of flooding and other severe weather events. Climate change is likely to cause increased weather variability and extreme weather events. Countries most affected by extreme weather events per continent include Ethiopia, Mozambique, Sudan, Bangladesh, and Honduras.
* Increases in the severity of natural disasters will affect access to infrastructure and water management capacity, leading to diarrheal disease, already the second leading cause of death among children. Geographically, the effects are most severe in SSA and South East Asia. Malnutrition and diarrhea take the largest toll, followed by malaria (especially important in SSA).

For more information, visit:
www.worldbank.org/environment/dataandstatistics

The World Bank www.WorldBank.org
May 13, 2008
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