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More value in second round?: That's the theory of Duke professor, so maybe Giants can do as well or better with 43rd pick than a No. 1
It takes 59 pages of graphs, mind-numbing equations and dense academic language to make the case. But the co-author of a paper on the NFL draft yesterday used simple language to comfort fans fretting over the Giants' lack of a first-round pick Saturday.
"It's not the end of the world," said Cade Massey, assistant professor of management at Duke's Fuqua School of Business. "In fact, they have a more valuable pick. We know that sounds kind of crazy."
The paper, not yet published and written with Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago, makes the argument that NFL officials routinely overestimate their ability to predict performance.
That, along with the high cost of early first-round picks in salary and trade value, means the cost-benefit ratio peaks far from the big names at the top of the draft.
At what spot on the graph do quality of player and reasonableness of price meet, according to the paper? At No. 43 overall, precisely where the Giants own their first selection.
Massey "hates" when his study is boiled down to an endorsement of the 43rd pick, the 11th in the second round, arguing it is too precise given the data's vagaries. But generally, he and Thaler "like the top half of the second round" for cost effectiveness.
The Giants apparently like it, too, at least this year. Fifty-two weeks after taking the kind of risk Massey argues against by trading for No. 1 pick Eli Manning - and paying him accordingly - they insist they are happy where they are.
Might general manager Ernie Accorsi trade up for the fourth time in five years?
"I don't really want to; I don't want to give up any choices," he said. "It's not worth it. We're happy where we are."
Might he trade down to add more choices to the four he has, the fewest in team history?
"You have to be careful," he said. "We're going to get a pretty good player at No. 43."
Pretty good might be good enough, because by signing three youthful free agents in tackle Kareem McKenzie, wide receiver Plaxico Burress and linebacker Antonio Pierce they eased the pressure to find rookies to rush into service.
The key was Burress, without whom they likely would have drafted a receiver in the second round. Instead, they could go in any of several directions.
The glaring priorities are defensive end, where there is no depth behind Michael Strahan (who is 33) and Osi Umenyiora, and cornerback, where there is no established player behind Will Allen (whose deal is up after this year) and Will Peterson. "I do think we need a corner," Peterson said.
Accorsi said the need at end could be addressed in the late-spring free-agent market. Given Strahan's age and massive contract, though, it might be time to develop a young player.
Other positions the Giants could target include linebacker, a back to groom as an eventual successor to Tiki Barber and an offensive tackle. A blocking tight end is a need, but a viable candidate is on the roster in Chris Luzar, a powerful former Jaguar.
Coach Tom Coughlin expressed no regrets about the Manning deal but added, "You'd like to have your numbers [of picks] because it's economical and it feeds your team. So we'll certainly have to do very well with the picks we do have."
The Giants gave the Chargers last year's third-round pick and this year's first-rounder (12th overall) and fifth-rounder for Manning. They also traded this year's seventh-rounder for guard Jason Whittle, so their only picks will be in the second, third, fourth and sixth rounds. Whether the Giants' bold move last April pays off in the long run, history shows they are nearly as likely to find a good player with their initial pick this year, at far less risk.
"We're not going so far as saying that teams should start passing on [first-round] picks," Massey said. "But our numbers show there is more value in the second round."
BY NEIL BEST
Newsday www.newsday.com
http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/giants/ny-spgiants204225754apr20,0,5566098.story?coll=ny-football-headlines